Seasonality & Market Cycles

Business cycles, calendar effects and the Fed.

1. The Business Cycle and Stocks — Economies move through expansions and recessions. Stocks tend to fall before recessions start and bottom before they end. Here is how the cycle works, with real examples from 2008 and 2020.
2. Sector Rotation Through the Cycle — Different industries tend to lead at different stages of the economic cycle. Here is the classic sector rotation map, a real example from 2022 and why the pattern is a guide, not a rule.
3. Calendar Effects — “Sell in May and go away.” “September is the worst month.” Here is what 20 years of real S&P 500 data says about calendar patterns, and why most are too weak to trade on.
4. Election-Year Patterns — Many investors believe elections move markets in predictable ways. Here is what the S&P 500 actually did in recent presidential and midterm election years, and why politics is a poor timing tool.
5. The Fed Cycle — The Federal Reserve raises rates to cool inflation and cuts them to support growth. Here is how the Fed cycle has played out since 2020, including the rate increase of Sept. 16, 2026, and how stocks responded.
6. Using Seasonality Carefully — Seasonal patterns and cycle theories are fun to study, but they are weak and unreliable on their own. Here is how to tell a real edge from noise, and sensible ways to use this knowledge.