Election-Year Patterns

Many investors believe elections move markets in predictable ways. Here is what the S&P 500 actually did in recent presidential and midterm election years, and why politics is a poor timing tool.

Presidential election years

YearSPY price change
2008−38.3%
2012+13.5%
2016+9.6%
2020+16.2%
2024+23.3%

Calendar-year price changes in our price data. Past performance does not predict future results.

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