Moving-Average Trend Systems

Moving averages are the simplest trend filters. Here is how a 200-day rule and a 50/200 crossover performed on SPY since 2007 in our price data, including what they avoided and what they missed.

Two classic rules

• 200-day rule: own the index when it closes above its 200-day moving average; hold cash when it closes below.
• 50/200 crossover: own the index when the 50-day average is above the 200-day, often called a golden cross; sell on a death cross.
• Both are purely mechanical: no forecasts, no opinions.

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